Nigel Farage and Reform UK could be handed the keys to Downing Street thanks to a breakthrough in one key region of the country, pollsters project.
Top polling firm Survation ran an in-depth focus group in the West Midlands in June in a bid to find out whether Nigel Farage has what it takes to become the next prime minister for a Channel 4 documentary.
In Solihull – a large market town situated on the River Blythe – the pollsters brought together 10 participants aged 22-61, from a mix of occupational and ethnic backgrounds and political histories, including Labour switchers, Tory deserters, and a 2024 non-voter.
As Survation research executive Anna McHugh explained: “If Reform UK hopes to win seats or cement its place as the opposition, it will need to convince voters in places like the West Midlands, where our polling places them ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.
Survation ran an in-depth focus group in the West Midlands in June in a bid to find out whether Nigel Farage could be heading to No10
SURVATION/CHANNEL 4
Reform UK’s aggregate polling has risen from nearly 15 to 29 per cent since the General Election
HOUSE OF COMMONS
In Solihull, McHugh said: “Farage strikes a chord with undecided voters, but they don’t fully trust him. They find themselves in an unlikely place in his Marmite effect: somewhere between love and hate.
“Our voters felt a mix of admiration for Reform UK’s focus on ordinary people, its break from the stiffness of mainstream politics and its simple, tangible economic messaging, with anxiety about the party’s divisiveness and doubts over whether it can deliver.
“It’s a tough call. They’ve tried the Conservatives and they’ve tried Labour, and neither worked out.
“Though their reservations about Reform UK remain, so do their frustrations with the alternatives.”
Her words came ahead of fresh polling from Techne UK today – which, when run through Electoral Calculus’s MRP prediction, would return a parliamentary majority of 28 for Reform.
Notable Labour MPs who would lose their West Midlands seats to Reform include Jess Phillips and Pat McFadden – with Shabana Mahmood losing out to an independent candidate.
GB NEWS
Here is the full seat breakdown, ordered by smallest to largest swing required to unseat a potential candidate:
- Dudley
- Cannock Chase
- Warwickshire North & Bedworth
- Tipton & Wednesbury
- Tamworth
- Walsall & Bloxwich
- Aldridge-Brownhills
- Nuneaton
- Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North
- Bromsgrove
- Stoke-on-Trent North
- Halesowen
- Wyre Forest
- Newcastle-under-Lyme
- Stoke-on-Trent Central
- Meriden & Solihull East
- Kingswinford & Staffordshire South
- Birmingham Northfield
- Staffordshire Moorlands
- Burton and Uttoxeter
- Solihull West & Shirley
- Wolverhampton North East
- Telford
- Birmingham Erdington
- Droitwich & Evesham
- Worcestershire West
- Stourbridge
- The Wrekin
- Hereford & Herefordshire South
- Stafford
- Stoke-on-Trent South
- Kenilworth & Southam
No walk in the park
As McHugh points out, these marginals will be a “critical test for Reform UK’s broadness of appeal”.
Farage’s ex-adviser Gawain Towler describes this problem as having “width not depth”.
He explained to GB News that Reform has “support everywhere, but it’s not deep enough to win a first-past-the-post election”, adding: “We can shovel up the millions of votes, but unless we learn to focus effectively, that does not necessarily translate into hundreds of seats.
He highlighted how the quirks of Britain’s electoral system meant Reform only won five MPs despite coming second to Labour in nearly 100 constituencies at the last general election.
However, with Reform neck and neck with Tories and Labour in the polls, Nigel Farage is in a much stronger position 12 months later.
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