Nigel Farage is on course to become Prime Minister with a landslide victory for his party Reform UK according to a new mammoth opinion poll. Reform would win 377 seats if an election was held today, giving them a majority of 50. Labour would win 118 seats, fewer than half as many as Reform, as anger over tax rises and soaring prices turns voters against Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
It would mean Sir Keir was kicked out of Downing Street. He could continue as leader of the opposition, or Labour could elect a new leader. Liberal Democrats would gain 69 seats – but Conservatives would be consigned to fourth place with just 29 seats in a nightmare result for party leader Kemi Badenoch.
The findings will pile more pressure on Mrs Badenoch, with many Conservatives already concerned that the party is struggling to win back support following their election loss last year while more voters are turning to Reform.
The poll was conducted by Electoral Calculus for public affairs firm PLMR. It’s what’s known as an MRP survey, which means more people are questioned than usual with 5,400 people surveyed. This allows the findings to be translated into seat numbers with more accuracy than usual.
According to the survey, 31% of voters would back Reform if an election was held now with 22% backing Labour, 19% voting Conservative and 13% voting Lib Dem. But Liberal Democrats would win more seats despite getting fewer voters, because of the way their votes are distributed across the country.
Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon.
“The ‘big two’ established parties now only command the support of 41 per cent of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.
“If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform.
“As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.”
Sir Keir is attempting to see off a huge Labour rebellion with 123 MPs signed up to a Commons amendment opposing planned benefit cuts.
Meanwhile Mr Farage this week launched plans to hand lower-paid workers grants likely to be between £600 and £1,000 each year, paid for by a new charge on wealthy “non doms”. Critics say his proposal would cost billions by cutting the taxes paid by some wealthy UK residents but Reform deny this.
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