What Golden Globe Nominations Mean for the Oscars

Monday’s Golden Globe nominations announcement has sparked elation for the honored and surprise for the snubbed—as well as speculation over who will end Hollywood’s awards season with coveted Academy Award nods.

Largely accepted as the awards season opener, the Golden Globe Awards promises to be the usual star-studded affair, thanks to the plethora of prominent names making the cut in their respective film and TV projects from the past year.

Musical drama Emilia Pérez is leading the pack with an impressive 10 nominations across several categories, including for its stars Selena Gomez, Zoe Saldana and Karla Sofia Gascón. The Brutalist, starring Adrien Brody, and Conclave, starring Ralph Fiennes, also landed a sizable haul of nominations with seven and six nods, respectively.

While the recently-released film adaptation of Wicked was nominated in major categories—including Best Picture Musical or Comedy and for its stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande—it fell short elsewhere, most notably for director Jon M. Chu.

In perhaps what will be marked as the biggest surprise of this year’s nominations, Gladiator II only picked up two nominations—one in the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category, as well as a Supporting Actor nod for Denzel Washington. The first Gladiator film, which was released in 2000, famously scooped a Best Picture Oscar at a victorious ceremony that also saw a Best Actor trophy go to Russell Crowe.

While the Golden Globes, set to air on January 7, are traditionally seen as a bellwether of how the Academy Awards will play out eight weeks later, film experts have told Newsweek that it’s far from a clear-cut indicator.

“Golden Globes aren’t devoid of providing insight, but its predictive value for Oscars, especially Oscar winners, isn’t especially high,” said Tim Stevens, a writer in the Office of Marketing and Communications at Connecticut College. “Certainly, other precursors like the SAG Awards are historically more predictive.

“However, taken as one data point among several award shows, the Globes can provide further evidence of possibilities indicated by other awards. In other words, it has use as a piece of a larger puzzle but as a singular event, it doesn’t hold any particular power.”

‘Overrated’ Predictor

Chris Hite, a filmmaker and professor of film and video at Santa Maria, California’s Allan Hancock College, agrees.

“The Golden Globes as a predictor may be overrated,” he told Newsweek. “Part of the complexity is that the Academy bestows one film with the title Best Picture whereas the Golden Globes gives two Best Picture awards—one for drama and one for comedy and/or musical.

“Even with that 2-to-1 ratio, the Academy and the Globes have only aligned on a Best Picture winner 50 percent of the time in the last 10 years.”

The films that did align are Oppenheimer (awarded in 2024), Nomadland (2021), Green Book (2019), Moonlight (2017), and Twelve Years a Slave (2014).

“The Golden Globes’ bifurcated approach to Best Picture allows them some latitude and the ability to throw some curveballs as well,” Hite continued. “In 2021, Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm commanded the Best Motion Picture—Musical or Comedy at the 2021 Golden Globes whereas it was only nominated in one category at the Oscars [for] writing.

“Other films in that year’s comedy/musical category like Hamilton weren’t even eligible for the Academy Awards as they did not have a theatrical release—a core requirement for the Oscars.”

Likely Contenders

So who (and what) out of this year’s crop of Golden Globe nominees are we likely to see vying for an Oscar once the latter airs live from Hollywood on March 2? Stevens, who also serves as a Rotten Tomatoes film critic and pop culture critic for The Spool, has some ideas.

“I think Wicked, A Real Pain, Anora, Nickel Boys, and The Brutalist are pretty safe bets among the best picture [nominations],” he said. “Given the past few years, I’d expect The Substance [starring Demi Moore] has a strong chance of sneaking in. A decade or so ago, it would probably be too gross, but with changes in the members since have shown a higher propensity for such films.

“A Complete Unknown [Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet], on the other hand, feels like a very Globes choice—big on star power, greeted by mediocre reviews—that might get nods in other categories but doesn’t make the Best Picture category, not even now that there are 10 nominations.”

When it comes to the women who might compete in the acting categories, Stevens said that he finds the possibilities “intriguing as it feels like the Best Comedy/Musical nods have a much stronger chance of getting into the Oscar mix than the Drama nominations. The safest among the drama category is Nicole Kidman for Babygirl. The rest of the Oscar nominations will likely be rounded out by Erivo, Moore, and Mikey Madison [Anora] with that final spot up for grabs.”

“Among the men, Brody and Colman Domingo [for Sing Sing] feel like locks,” he continued, before noting that one actor has this year secured Golden Globe nominations for two different projects.

“I’m interested in if Sebastian Stan will get a nod given his two roles,” he said. “If he does, I think he’s far more likely to score for [black comedy thriller] A Different Man than [Donald Trump biopic] The Apprentice.”

Among those Stevens would like to see vying for an Oscar are Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain, Jesse Plemons for Kinds of Kindness, and Hugh Grant for Heretic.

When it comes to supporting roles, Stevens opined: “Kieran Culkin [for A Real Pain] and Grande are locks, in my opinion, and Margaret Qualley [The Substance] very close to the same.”

The 97th Academy Award nominations will be announced on January 17, with the ceremony taking place on March 2. The Golden Globe Awards will take place on January 7.